Bayern Münih 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
32%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.1
Over 2.5
58%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
3.1
6+ Goals
13%
9.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.96
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.8
X/1
9%
4.14
X/2
10%
14.85
X/X
9%
7.05
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2 EV+ ✗
15%
11.5
2/X
7%
20.7
Value flag · 2/2 at 11.5 — our 15% vs market 6.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
64%
-16.8pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.9pp
32%
Away Win
16%
+15.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.7pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 19%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -35% / -35%
2.47/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/3.00
-1% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +82% / -24%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
474 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
36.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.7 Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.42 xG 1.41
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
572 Passes 327
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2024 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
10.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
15.09.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.03.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
30.09.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-0 HT 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
05.03.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
0-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.89 xG 1.38
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 4
417 Passes 290
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen nicked a narrow win over Bayern Münih 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Bayern Münih at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 58% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 42%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.89 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Bayern Münih 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - DFB Cup on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 47%, draw 21%, Bayer Leverkusen 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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