Bayern Münih 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2024

Bayern Münih
1-1 HT 1-1
Bayer Leverkusen
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.96
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.41
No
45%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.09
2-3 Goals
35%
2.2
4-5 Goals
30%
2.45
6+ Goals
13%
4.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.04
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
14.1
X/1
11%
4.45
X/2
11%
9.99
X/X
7%
7.14
2/1
7%
18.4
2/2
8%
6.1
2/X
5%
14.25
Value flag · 1/X at 14.1 — our 12% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.3pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.2pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
67%
-12.1pp
45%
BTTS No
33%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern Münih v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 26%
+10% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
2.06/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.88
+32% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
482 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 76%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.2 Crosses 13.8
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.73 xG 1.51
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
563 Passes 350
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
39 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.02.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 HT 1-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
15.09.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
19.03.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
30.09.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-0 HT 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
05.03.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-1 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.10.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-5 HT 0-5 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1

Bayern Münih 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
1-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.38 xG 0.06
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
644 Passes 238
90% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 4
17 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih and Bayer Leverkusen shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Bayern Münih at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 69% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 31%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 1.38 to 0.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Bayern Münih 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 50%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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