Mainz 05 0-2 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.33
6+ Goals
14%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.38
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
22%
4.24
X/2
10%
8.49
X/X
8%
5.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.15
2/2
12%
6.29
2/X
10%
14.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
1.49/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.28
-5% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +149%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
386 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
22.5 Crosses 14.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Heidenheim
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.51 xG 0.73
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 Passes 238
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
38 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.12.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
0-2
AWAY Heidenheim
0.57 xG 1.19
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
293 Passes 288
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim got the better of Mainz 05 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 50% of the ball to Heidenheim's 50%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.57 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Heidenheim led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.00 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim?

Mainz 05 0-2 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 47%, draw 25%, Heidenheim 28%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mainz 05), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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