Heidenheim 1-1 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 5 May 2024

Heidenheim
1-1 HT 0-1
Mainz 05
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Heidenheim vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.17
2-3 Goals
44%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 26% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.27
1/2
5%
24.45
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
13%
6.59
X/2
13%
5.2
X/X
13%
5.03
2/1
10%
29.5
2/2
13%
3.05
2/X
9%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
33%
+6.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
31%
Away Win
40%
-8.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heidenheim v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 45%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -12%
1.36/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.25
-7% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
278 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 77%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
23.6 Crosses 19.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4

Heidenheim vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Mainz 05
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.53 xG 1.63
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 8
147 Passes 366
54% Pass Accuracy 75%
9 Box Touches 45
7 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-1 HT 0-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1

Heidenheim 1-1 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
1-1
AWAY Mainz 05
0.94 xG 1.40
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
330 Passes 409
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 31
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim and Mainz 05 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 31%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 46% of the ball to Mainz 05's 54%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 0.94 to 1.40.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Mainz 05?

Heidenheim 1-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 40%, draw 28%, Mainz 05 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heidenheim) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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