Union Berlin 3-4 Bochum — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.22
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.65
6+ Goals
10%
15.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 28% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.64
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.36
X/2
8%
7.51
X/X
12%
4.65
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
13%
5.68
2/X
7%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Bochum EU Bookmakers 29%
+15% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.47/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.58
+12% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
297 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 72%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
20.9 Crosses 19.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bochum
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.38 xG 1.54
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
275 Passes 323
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.12.2023 Bochum Bochum 3-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
16.04.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-1 HT 1-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
23.10.2022 Bochum Bochum 2-1 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
14.05.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-2 HT 2-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
18.12.2021 Bochum Bochum 0-1 HT 0-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
19.05.2019 Bochum Bochum 2-2 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
3-4
AWAY Bochum
0.94 xG 1.42
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
233 Passes 253
65% Pass Accuracy 65%
25 Box Touches 35
21 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Bochum
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bochum nicked a narrow win over Union Berlin 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Union Berlin at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 48% of the ball to Bochum's 52%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 0.94 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Union Berlin and 1.67 for Bochum.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Bochum?

Union Berlin 3-4 Bochum in the Germany - Bundesliga on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Bochum?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 46%, draw 25%, Bochum 29%. The final score 3-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
5 May 2024
18:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen Analysis →
20:30 Heidenheim vs Mainz 05 Analysis →