Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.79
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.88
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
12%
4.87
X/2
13%
6.94
X/X
14%
4.86
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
16%
4.75
2/X
7%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
45%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+5.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.7pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -15%
2.01/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.39
+20% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
352 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 72%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
18.3 Crosses 21.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mönchengladbach
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Union Berlin
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.21 xG 1.47
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
492 Passes 313
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
09.12.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 1-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
23.04.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
30.10.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 0-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
22.01.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-2 HT 1-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
29.08.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 2-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mönchengladbach
1-0
AWAY Union Berlin
0.86 xG 0.66
64% Ball Possession 36%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
511 Passes 234
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mönchengladbach squeezed past Union Berlin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Mönchengladbach made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mönchengladbach had 64% of the ball to Union Berlin's 36%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.86 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mönchengladbach and 1.67 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?

Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mönchengladbach win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Mönchengladbach 37%, draw 28%, Union Berlin 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mönchengladbach) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mönchengladbach) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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