Freiburg 0-3 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2024

Freiburg
0-3 HT 0-2
St. Pauli
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Freiburg vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.1
Over 2.5
59%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.06
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
29%
3.08
6+ Goals
11%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.35
X/1
19%
3.88
X/2
8%
11.1
X/X
9%
5.76
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
7%
8.36
2/X
6%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
59%
-1.4pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.0pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 21%
+9% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -20%
2.28/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.91
-4% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
391 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
20.8 Crosses 19.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

Freiburg vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.11 xG 1.20
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
455 Passes 285
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
36 Box Touches 18
30 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 7
The Meetings
19.10.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AFK
10.04.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 4-3 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
25.10.2015 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL2
15.01.2011 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
21.08.2010 Freiburg Freiburg 1-3 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
24.04.2009 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-2 HT 1-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL2

Freiburg 0-3 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
0-3
AWAY St. Pauli
1.16 xG 1.11
73% Ball Possession 27%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
549 Passes 154
87% Pass Accuracy 66%
28 Box Touches 15
32 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli swept aside Freiburg 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Freiburg at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Freiburg had 73% of the ball to St. Pauli's 27%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.16 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Freiburg and 1.83 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs St. Pauli?

Freiburg 0-3 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 58%, draw 21%, St. Pauli 21%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Freiburg), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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