RB Leipzig 4-0 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.29
2-3 Goals
37%
1.98
4-5 Goals
26%
2.69
6+ Goals
14%
6.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.15
X/1
12%
3.92
X/2
7%
11.9
X/X
15%
6.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
19.7
2/2
11%
8.24
2/X
5%
16.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 14% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.8pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.2pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -14%
2.09/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.80
+3% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
413 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 72%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
17.7 Crosses 16.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Augsburg
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.04 xG 1.04
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
498 Passes 264
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
10.02.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 2-2 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
16.09.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-0 HT 3-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
15.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-2 HT 3-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
22.10.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 3-3 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
08.05.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
15.12.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
4-0
AWAY Augsburg
3.05 xG 1.08
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 5
476 Passes 303
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig cruised past Augsburg 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 59% of the ball to Augsburg's 41%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 3.05 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.33 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?

RB Leipzig 4-0 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 52%, draw 25%, Augsburg 23%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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