Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 3 Dec 2024

Arminia Bielefeld
3-1 HT 2-0
Freiburg
📅03/12/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2024/2025

Arminia Bielefeld vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
51%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.82
Over 2.5
54%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.76
6+ Goals
13%
15.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.76 — our 24% vs market 21.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
7.92
1/2 EV+ ✗
13%
28.0
1/X
10%
17.65
X/1
9%
10.0
X/2
18%
4.45
X/X
10%
5.41
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.54
2/X
5%
16.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.0 — our 13% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
22%
+1.9pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
51%
Away Win
53%
-2.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.4pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arminia Bielefeld v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 57%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.19/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/1.37
+40% / +147% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +79%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
264 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 79%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.6
15.1 Crosses 22.8
4.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Arminia Bielefeld vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Freiburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.72 xG 1.56
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
274 Passes 388
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.01.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL1
14.08.2021 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
09.04.2021 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
12.12.2020 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL1
02.03.2016 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-4 HT 1-3 Freiburg Freiburg AL2
18.09.2015 Freiburg Freiburg 2-2 HT 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2

Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arminia Bielefeld
3-1
AWAY Freiburg
2.00 xG 2.02
46% Ball Possession 54%
20 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 3
269 Passes 317
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arminia Bielefeld vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld got the better of Freiburg 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Freiburg at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Arminia Bielefeld had 46% of the ball to Freiburg's 54%, shots finished 20-17, expected goals 2.00 to 2.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.67 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Arminia Bielefeld vs Freiburg?

Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 Freiburg in the Germany - DFB Cup on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arminia Bielefeld vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Arminia Bielefeld 24%, draw 25%, Freiburg 51%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Freiburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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