Benfica 0-1 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 5 Mar 2025

Benfica
0-1 HT 0-0
Barcelona
📅05/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Benfica vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
49%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.51
Over 2.5
67%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
65%
1.46
No
35%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
5.42
2-3 Goals
36%
2.0
4-5 Goals
31%
2.56
6+ Goals
18%
5.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.61
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
19.35
1/X
10%
13.75
X/1
10%
8.59
X/2
15%
4.81
X/X
6%
6.32
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
24%
2.32
2/X
8%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.35 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+1.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
49%
Away Win
52%
-3.0pp
33%
Under 2.5
36%
-3.5pp
67%
Over 2.5
64%
+3.5pp
65%
BTTS Yes
64%
+0.5pp
35%
BTTS No
36%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 56%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
2.50/2.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.73
+136% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -44%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 84%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
11.4 Crosses 15.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.1

Benfica vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Barcelona
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.08 xG 1.81
34% Ball Possession 66%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
245 Passes 557
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.01.2025 Benfica Benfica 4-5 HT 3-1 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
23.11.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica ŞMP
29.09.2021 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
05.12.2012 Barcelona Barcelona 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica ŞMP
02.10.2012 Benfica Benfica 0-2 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
05.04.2006 Barcelona Barcelona 2-0 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica ŞMP

Benfica 0-1 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
0-1
AWAY Barcelona
1.75 xG 1.19
52% Ball Possession 48%
26 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 4
361 Passes 356
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
48 Box Touches 20
32 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona nicked a narrow win over Benfica 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Benfica had 52% of the ball to Barcelona's 48%, shots finished 26-10, expected goals 1.75 to 1.19 — the balance of chances actually favoured Benfica.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Benfica and 1.50 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Barcelona?

Benfica 0-1 Barcelona in the Champions League on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Benfica 27%, draw 24%, Barcelona 49%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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