Benfica 4-5 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jan 2025

Benfica
4-5 HT 3-1
Barcelona
📅21/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

Benfica vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.63
Over 2.5
56%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.39
No
47%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.99
2-3 Goals
41%
2.06
4-5 Goals
25%
2.48
6+ Goals
11%
5.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.34
1/2 EV+ ✓
10%
20.5
1/X
6%
12.05
X/1
9%
7.42
X/2
12%
5.57
X/X
11%
6.06
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
23%
2.78
2/X
7%
11.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.5 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
34%
+9.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
66%
-9.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
68%
-14.8pp
47%
BTTS No
32%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 48%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -6%
3.31/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.50
+131% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -31%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 416 · 81%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
11.2 Crosses 18.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Benfica vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Barcelona
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.44 xG 0.91
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
278 Passes 507
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.11.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica ŞMP
29.09.2021 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
05.12.2012 Barcelona Barcelona 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica ŞMP
02.10.2012 Benfica Benfica 0-2 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
05.04.2006 Barcelona Barcelona 2-0 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica ŞMP
28.03.2006 Benfica Benfica 0-0 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP

Benfica 4-5 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
4-5
AWAY Barcelona
3.35 xG 3.63
26% Ball Possession 74%
10 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 6
177 Passes 658
71% Pass Accuracy 90%
23 Box Touches 34
9 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona edged past Benfica 5-4 away from home. It was 3-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Benfica had 26% of the ball to Barcelona's 74%, shots finished 10-22, expected goals 3.35 to 3.63.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Barcelona?

Benfica 4-5 Barcelona in the Champions League on 21/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Benfica 32%, draw 24%, Barcelona 45%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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