Liverpool 2-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jan 2025

📅21/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.3
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.33
Over 2.5
55%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.73
6+ Goals
12%
7.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
20.55
X/1
14%
3.79
X/2
6%
18.15
X/X
11%
7.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.15
2/2
9%
15.35
2/X
7%
23.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.15 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
72%
-15.2pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.3pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+8.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
39%
+6.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
61%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
2.15/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.62
-13% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +55%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
466 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
39.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.8 Crosses 10.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lille
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
12 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
18.03.2010 Liverpool Liverpool 3-0 HT 1-0 Lille Lille AVL
11.03.2010 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
2-1
AWAY Lille
2.46 xG 0.49
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
522 Passes 406
90% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool squeezed past Lille 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Liverpool had 56% of the ball to Lille's 44%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 2.46 to 0.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Liverpool's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Liverpool and 0.50 for Lille.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Lille?

Liverpool 2-1 Lille in the Champions League on 21/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 57%, draw 23%, Lille 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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