Monaco 1-0 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jan 2025

📅21/01/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.04
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.59
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.0
X/1
18%
5.97
X/2
16%
6.07
X/X
16%
5.02
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
14%
3.7
2/X
6%
12.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
37%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.1pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 39%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +44% / +44%
1.63/2.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.14/2.23
+33% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +113% / -34%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
14.8 Crosses 17.0
3.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
1-0
AWAY Aston Villa
1.57 xG 0.95
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
242 Passes 423
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco nicked a narrow win over Aston Villa 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Monaco made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monaco had 39% of the ball to Aston Villa's 61%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.57 to 0.95.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Aston Villa?

Monaco 1-0 Aston Villa in the Champions League on 21/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Monaco 34%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ BTTS Yes
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