Kızılyıldız 2-3 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jan 2025

📅21/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
46%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.61
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.88
2-3 Goals
39%
2.06
4-5 Goals
30%
2.49
6+ Goals
12%
5.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.08
1/2
5%
18.95
1/X
5%
13.75
X/1
10%
9.37
X/2
13%
4.8
X/X
14%
6.51
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
33.5
2/2
27%
2.19
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 33.5 — our 7% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
24%
+6.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.5pp
46%
Away Win
53%
-7.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.7pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kızılyıldız EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 57%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.03/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.42
+7% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -85% / +23%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
312 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 496 · 86%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.2
21.0 Crosses 19.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kızılyıldız
0W-0D-1L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
25.08.2004 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 5-0 HT 2-0 Kızılyıldız Kızılyıldız ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kızılyıldız
2-3
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
2.66 xG 0.83
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
409 Passes 297
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 21
38 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Kızılyıldız vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven edged past Kızılyıldız 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kızılyıldız had 57% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 43%, shots finished 21-13, expected goals 2.66 to 0.83 — on chances, Kızılyıldız could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Kızılyıldız vs PSV Eindhoven?

Kızılyıldız 2-3 PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League on 21/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kızılyıldız vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kızılyıldız 31%, draw 24%, PSV Eindhoven 46%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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