Atalanta 5-0 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jan 2025

📅21/01/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.29
Draw
24%
5.15
Away
20%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.44
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
22.55
X/1
13%
3.71
X/2
5%
20.8
X/X
11%
8.09
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
9%
18.5
2/X
6%
26.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
74%
-17.2pp
24%
Draw
17%
+7.2pp
20%
Away Win
10%
+9.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+4.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-4.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 12%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
2.30/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.96
-64% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -5%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
458 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
45.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
33.3 Crosses 12.1
0.7 Yellow Cards 0.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.92 xG 0.84
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
476 Passes 186
82% Pass Accuracy 61%
33 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 1-0 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVL
26.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-2 HT 1-2 Atalanta Atalanta AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
5-0
AWAY Sturm Graz
5.34 xG 0.79
61% Ball Possession 39%
25 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 1
537 Passes 318
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
60 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta cruised past Sturm Graz 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atalanta had 61% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 39%, shots finished 25-5, expected goals 5.34 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atalanta and 1.00 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Sturm Graz?

Atalanta 5-0 Sturm Graz in the Champions League on 21/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 56%, draw 24%, Sturm Graz 20%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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