Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.9
No
45%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.61
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
4.01
6+ Goals
12%
19.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.01 — our 25% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.7
1/2 EV+ ✗
14%
27.5
1/X
7%
14.8
X/1
10%
7.11
X/2
16%
4.5
X/X
18%
4.29
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
12%
2.83
2/X
4%
13.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 14% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+1.5pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-4.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-8.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+8.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.1pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shanghai Shenhua EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.37/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.40
+46% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +9%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
230 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 80%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
21.8 Crosses 13.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shanghai Shenhua
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.71 xG 0.67
64% Ball Possession 36%
25 Total Shots 7
12 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 1
523 Passes 261
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
41 Box Touches 7
25 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 0
23.10.2024 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 2-0 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shanghai Shenhua
1-0
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
1.20 xG 0.18
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 6
403 Passes 462
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 18
9 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shanghai Shenhua vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shanghai Shenhua nicked a narrow win over Kawasaki Frontale 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Kawasaki Frontale at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shanghai Shenhua had 45% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 55%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.20 to 0.18.

What was the final score of Shanghai Shenhua vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shanghai Shenhua vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Shanghai Shenhua 29%, draw 30%, Kawasaki Frontale 42%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kawasaki Frontale) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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AŞMP More AFC Sampiyonlar League
5 Mar 2025
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