Al Mokawloon 1-3 Al Ahly — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 5 Mar 2026

Al Mokawloon
1 - 3 HT 0 - 1
Al Ahly
📅05/03/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Egypt - Premier League – 2025/2026

Al Mokawloon vs Al Ahly Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
11%
5.91
Draw
23%
3.64
Away Pick
66%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under
63%
1.48
Over
37%
2.3
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.73
No
62%
1.4
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.1
2-3
46%
1.73
4-5
15%
5.24
6+
3%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
4%
X/2
21%
X/X
16%
2/1
0%
2/2
42%
2/X
4%
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Al Mokawloon v Al Ahly — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Al Mokawloon The Market 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahly The Market 66%
Bad Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
0.54 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.87
1.71 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 0.68
Bad Attack Strength Average
Average Defense Strength Strong
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
221 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 82%
15 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2

Al Mokawloon vs Al Ahly Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Mokawloon
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Al Ahly
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.92 xG 1.14
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
216 Passes 436
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.12.2025 Al Ahly Al Ahly 0-3 HT 0-2 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon MSRLK
04.08.2024 Al Ahly Al Ahly 4-0 HT 2-0 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon MSR
04.11.2023 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
16.07.2023 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon 1-4 HT 1-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
07.03.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-1 HT 2-1 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon MSR
27.11.2022 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon MSRK

Al Mokawloon 1-3 Al Ahly — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Mokawloon
1 - 3
AWAY Al Ahly
1.05 xG 1.00
31% Ball Possession 69%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
127 Passes 396
60% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Al Mokawloon vs Al Ahly
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Al Ahly put daylight between themselves and Al Mokawloon 3-1 on their travels. Half-time: 0-1.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

By the numbers, Al Ahly saw more of the ball, 69% to 31%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.05 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Al Mokawloon against 2.17 for Al Ahly.

Al Mokawloon vs Al Ahly Result & Final Score

Al Mokawloon 1 - 3 Al Ahly in the Egypt - Premier League on 05/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Al Mokawloon vs Al Ahly Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Al Mokawloon 11%, draw 23%, Al Ahly 66%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MSR More Egypt - Premier League
5 Mar 2026
22:30 Ceramica Cleopatra vs National Bank of Egypt Analysis →
22:30 Petrojet vs El Geish Analysis →
22:30 Haras El Hodood vs Pyramids Analysis →