Matagalpa 2-4 Real Madriz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 5 Mar 2026

📅05/03/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
16%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.21
Over 2.5
57%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
64%
-1.1pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.3pp
16%
Away Win
15%
+1.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matagalpa EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madriz EU Bookmakers 18%
-33% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.02/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.18
-49% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matagalpa
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Real Madriz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
01.02.2026 Real Madriz Real Madriz 1-1 HT 1-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
06.10.2025 Real Madriz Real Madriz 1-2 HT 0-2 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
27.07.2025 Matagalpa Matagalpa 1-2 HT 1-1 Real Madriz Real Madriz NİK
POST-MATCH Matagalpa vs Real Madriz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madriz saw off Matagalpa 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Matagalpa carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Matagalpa and 1.33 for Real Madriz.

What was the final score of Matagalpa vs Real Madriz?

Matagalpa 2-4 Real Madriz in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 05/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matagalpa vs Real Madriz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matagalpa win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Matagalpa 63%, draw 21%, Real Madriz 16%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Matagalpa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matagalpa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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