Guangzhou Evergrande 2-1 Shanghai Jiading — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.9
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.59
Over 2.5
36%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.43
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
4.92
6+ Goals
10%
28.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.43 — our 39% vs market 34.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
49%
-10.0pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.8pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.1pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Shanghai Jiading EU Bookmakers 28%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.19/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/0.89
-65% / +71% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / -15%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 80%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
25.8 Crosses 18.7
3.9 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Shanghai Jiading
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.88 xG 0.19
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
314 Passes 117
81% Pass Accuracy 64%
16 Box Touches 8
16 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Shanghai Jiading Shanghai Jiading 1-0 HT 0-0 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
22.07.2023 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande 0-0 HT 0-0 Shanghai Jiading Shanghai Jiading ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
2-1
AWAY Shanghai Jiading
1.74 xG 0.25
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 6
330 Passes 160
81% Pass Accuracy 64%
24 Box Touches 9
34 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guangzhou Evergrande vs Shanghai Jiading
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guangzhou Evergrande squeezed past Shanghai Jiading 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 31% / 30% — and on the day Guangzhou Evergrande made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guangzhou Evergrande had 62% of the ball to Shanghai Jiading's 38%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 1.74 to 0.25 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Guangzhou Evergrande's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Shanghai Jiading led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Guangzhou Evergrande and 0.50 for Shanghai Jiading.

What was the final score of Guangzhou Evergrande vs Shanghai Jiading?

Guangzhou Evergrande 2-1 Shanghai Jiading in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangzhou Evergrande vs Shanghai Jiading?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guangzhou Evergrande win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Guangzhou Evergrande 39%, draw 31%, Shanghai Jiading 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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