Changchun YaTai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒10:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.09
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
48%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
11%
16.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
9.18
1/2
5%
24.85
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
17.4
X/1
10%
10.95
X/2
23%
3.66
X/X
8%
4.99
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.02
2/X
9%
16.4
Value flag · 1/X at 17.4 — our 13% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
17%
+4.9pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.7pp
48%
Away Win
59%
-10.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Changchun YaTai EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Shanghai Shenhua EU Bookmakers 62%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
0.79/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/0.60
-18% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +72%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
233 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 82%
10.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
13.1 Crosses 18.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Changchun YaTai
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Shanghai Shenhua
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.14 xG 0.85
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
386 Passes 238
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
22.07.2023 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 1-1 HT 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİNSL
26.04.2023 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
03.11.2022 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 0-0 HT 0-0 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİN
05.08.2022 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 0-0 HT 0-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
18.10.2021 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai 0-2 HT 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua ÇİNK
06.08.2021 Shanghai Shenhua Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 HT 1-0 Changchun YaTai Changchun YaTai ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Changchun YaTai
1-2
AWAY Shanghai Shenhua
1.39 xG 1.92
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
269 Passes 337
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 37
21 Crosses 36
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Changchun YaTai vs Shanghai Shenhua
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shanghai Shenhua squeezed past Changchun YaTai 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Shanghai Shenhua as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Changchun YaTai had 46% of the ball to Shanghai Shenhua's 54%, shots finished 6-22, expected goals 1.39 to 1.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shanghai Shenhua led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Changchun YaTai and 0.83 for Shanghai Shenhua.

What was the final score of Changchun YaTai vs Shanghai Shenhua?

Changchun YaTai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Changchun YaTai vs Shanghai Shenhua?

Before kick-off our model rated an Shanghai Shenhua win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Changchun YaTai 22%, draw 30%, Shanghai Shenhua 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shanghai Shenhua) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shanghai Shenhua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ÇİN More China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League
5 Apr 2024
14:35 Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Taishan Analysis →
14:35 Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Port Analysis →
15:00 Nantong Zhiyun vs Meizhou Hakka Analysis →