Neptüna Klaipeda 2-2 BFA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.1pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neptüna Klaipeda EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY BFA EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
2.06/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.56
+38% / +101% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neptüna Klaipeda
2W-1D-1L
AWAY BFA
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
53% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.09.2023 BFA BFA 2-2 Neptüna Klaipeda Neptüna Klaipeda LIT1
13.05.2023 Neptüna Klaipeda Neptüna Klaipeda 1-0 HT 0-0 BFA BFA LIT1
07.10.2022 Neptüna Klaipeda Neptüna Klaipeda 1-0 HT 0-0 BFA BFA LIT1
04.06.2022 BFA BFA 3-0 HT 2-0 Neptüna Klaipeda Neptüna Klaipeda LIT1
POST-MATCH Neptüna Klaipeda vs BFA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neptüna Klaipeda and BFA shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Neptüna Klaipeda at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Neptüna Klaipeda had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Neptüna Klaipeda and 1.25 for BFA.

What was the final score of Neptüna Klaipeda vs BFA?

Neptüna Klaipeda 2-2 BFA in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neptüna Klaipeda vs BFA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neptüna Klaipeda win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Neptüna Klaipeda 47%, draw 26%, BFA 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Neptüna Klaipeda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neptüna Klaipeda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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