Alfaro 1-0 Real Sociedad III — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.7pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfaro EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad III EU Bookmakers 29%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +5%
0.86/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.21
-34% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +0%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 11.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfaro
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Real Sociedad III
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.11.2024 Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III 2-2 HT 0-1 Alfaro Alfaro İS4
29.01.2023 Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III 3-1 HT 0-1 Alfaro Alfaro İS4
10.09.2022 Alfaro Alfaro 3-1 HT 2-0 Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfaro
1-0
AWAY Real Sociedad III
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alfaro vs Real Sociedad III
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alfaro nicked a narrow win over Real Sociedad III 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alfaro as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Alfaro had 49% of the ball to Real Sociedad III's 51%, shots finished 10-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Alfaro and 2.00 for Real Sociedad III.

What was the final score of Alfaro vs Real Sociedad III?

Alfaro 1-0 Real Sociedad III in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfaro vs Real Sociedad III?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alfaro win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Alfaro 43%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad III 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alfaro), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alfaro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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