Monza 1-3 Como — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 5 Apr 2025

Monza
1-3 HT 1-2
Como
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.13
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
44%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.5
6+ Goals
11%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 30% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.95
1/2
14%
23.75
1/X
6%
16.3
X/1
8%
9.72
X/2
9%
4.21
X/X
13%
5.11
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.2
2/X
10%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+6.1pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.7pp
44%
Away Win
55%
-10.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.6pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Como EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+23% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
298 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 83%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.9 Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Como
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.37 xG 1.10
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
364 Passes 271
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.11.2024 Como Como 1-1 HT 1-0 Monza Monza İTA
03.04.2022 Como Como 2-0 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTB
21.11.2021 Monza Monza 3-2 HT 2-0 Como Como İTB
19.01.2020 Monza Monza 1-1 HT 0-1 Como Como İTC
08.09.2019 Como Como 0-1 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTC
17.10.2014 Monza Monza 2-1 HT 2-0 Como Como İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-3
AWAY Como
0.81 xG 2.17
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 2
363 Passes 551
88% Pass Accuracy 93%
13 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monza vs Como
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Como got the better of Monza 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Como as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monza had 42% of the ball to Como's 58%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.81 to 2.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monza had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Monza and 1.17 for Como.

What was the final score of Monza vs Como?

Monza 1-3 Como in the Italy - Serie A on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Como?

Before kick-off our model rated an Como win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Monza 27%, draw 29%, Como 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Como) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Como) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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