Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Milan v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals
Milan vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Fiorentina
İTA
2-1
HT 0-0
Milan
İTA
2-1
HT 1-1
Fiorentina
İTA
1-0
HT 0-0
Fiorentina
İTA
Milan 2-2 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics
Milan and Fiorentina shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.
Our pre-match lean was Milan at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Milan had 52% of the ball to Fiorentina's 48%, shots finished 19-15, expected goals 2.65 to 2.35.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Milan and 1.00 for Fiorentina.
What was the final score of Milan vs Fiorentina?
Milan 2-2 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Milan vs Fiorentina?
Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Milan 47%, draw 26%, Fiorentina 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milan), Under 2.5 went the other way.