Fiorentina 1-2 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 30 Mar 2024

Fiorentina
1-2 HT 0-0
Milan
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Fiorentina vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.86
Over 2.5
55%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.54
6+ Goals
11%
14.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.54 — our 27% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.19
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
15%
6.09
X/2
16%
5.19
X/X
13%
4.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
31.5
2/2
16%
3.34
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.5 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.4pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fiorentina v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 43%
+4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.54/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.18
+5% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 83%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
25.3 Crosses 16.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

Fiorentina vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Milan
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.16 xG 1.52
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
324 Passes 351
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
04.03.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
13.11.2022 Milan Milan 2-1 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
01.05.2022 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
20.11.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 4-3 HT 2-0 Milan Milan İTA
21.03.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-3 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA

Fiorentina 1-2 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
1-2
AWAY Milan
1.38 xG 3.10
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 10
7 Corners 5
282 Passes 373
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
35 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan nicked a narrow win over Fiorentina 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Milan found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fiorentina had 45% of the ball to Milan's 55%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.38 to 3.10 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Milan's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fiorentina and 1.83 for Milan.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Milan?

Fiorentina 1-2 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 35%, draw 25%, Milan 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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