Napoli 0-3 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 30 Mar 2024

Napoli
0-3 HT 0-2
Atalanta
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Napoli vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.45
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 29% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.94
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
17%
4.78
X/2
11%
6.77
X/X
15%
4.68
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
11%
4.8
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Napoli v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.67/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.41
+58% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 80%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
17.0 Crosses 13.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Napoli vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Atalanta
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.36 xG 1.44
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
439 Passes 366
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
11.03.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
05.11.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 1-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
03.04.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-3 HT 0-2 Napoli Napoli İTA
04.12.2021 Napoli Napoli 2-3 HT 1-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
21.02.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 4-2 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA

Napoli 0-3 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
0-3
AWAY Atalanta
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
519 Passes 314
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta cruised past Napoli 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Napoli had 61% of the ball to Atalanta's 39%, shots finished 20-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Napoli and 1.67 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Atalanta?

Napoli 0-3 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Napoli 42%, draw 29%, Atalanta 28%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Napoli), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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