Fiorentina vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fiorentina v Milan — Team-Based Signals
Fiorentina vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Fiorentina
İTA
2-1
HT 0-0
Milan
İTA
2-1
HT 1-1
Fiorentina
İTA
1-0
HT 0-0
Fiorentina
İTA
4-3
HT 2-0
Milan
İTA
Fiorentina 2-1 Milan — Actual Match Statistics
Fiorentina edged past Milan 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Fiorentina found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Fiorentina had 40% of the ball to Milan's 60%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.47 to 2.67 — on chances, Milan could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fiorentina and 1.67 for Milan.
What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Milan?
Fiorentina 2-1 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Milan?
Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 34%, draw 27%, Milan 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milan) went the other way.