Monza 1-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Oct 2024

Monza
1-1 HT 0-0
Roma
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
45%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
51%
1.64
Over 2.5
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.66
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.41
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.18
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
9%
14.85
X/1
6%
7.58
X/2
13%
4.19
X/X
9%
4.13
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.69
2/X
8%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-1.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-5.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+5.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 51%
-15% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.03/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.04
-26% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -13%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
16.4 Crosses 17.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Roma
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
0.77 xG 1.61
54% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
431 Passes 342
88% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Monza Monza 1-4 HT 0-2 Roma Roma İTA
22.10.2023 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTA
03.05.2023 Monza Monza 1-1 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
30.08.2022 Roma Roma 3-0 HT 2-0 Monza Monza İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
1-1
AWAY Roma
1.12 xG 1.07
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
234 Passes 519
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monza vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monza and Roma shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Roma at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Monza had 34% of the ball to Roma's 66%, shots finished 3-15, expected goals 1.12 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Monza and 2.25 for Roma.

What was the final score of Monza vs Roma?

Monza 1-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Monza 29%, draw 26%, Roma 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Roma) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
6 Oct 2024
13:30 Juventus vs Cagliari Analysis →
16:00 Bologna vs Parma Analysis →
16:00 Lazio vs Empoli Analysis →
21:45 Fiorentina vs Milan Analysis →