Monza vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Monza v Roma — Team-Based Signals
Monza vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Monza
İTA
1-1
HT 1-1
Roma
İTA
3-0
HT 2-0
Monza
İTA
Monza 1-1 Roma — Actual Match Statistics
Monza and Roma shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.
Our pre-match lean was Roma at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Monza had 34% of the ball to Roma's 66%, shots finished 3-15, expected goals 1.12 to 1.07.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Monza and 2.25 for Roma.
What was the final score of Monza vs Roma?
Monza 1-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Monza vs Roma?
Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Monza 29%, draw 26%, Roma 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Roma) went the other way.