Juventus 1-1 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.6
6+ Goals
9%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 29% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1.9
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.55
X/1
27%
3.55
X/2
6%
12.1
X/X
15%
5.42
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
10%
10.15
2/X
7%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
62%
-10.4pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.1pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.2pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventus EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 19%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -14%
1.75/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.89
-6% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
20.0 Crosses 17.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventus
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Cagliari
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.62 xG 0.85
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
470 Passes 279
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2024 Cagliari Cagliari 2-2 HT 2-0 Juventus Juventus İTA
11.11.2023 Juventus Juventus 2-1 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
09.04.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 1-2 HT 1-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
21.12.2021 Juventus Juventus 2-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
14.03.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 1-3 HT 0-3 Juventus Juventus İTA
21.11.2020 Juventus Juventus 2-0 HT 2-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventus
1-1
AWAY Cagliari
2.46 xG 1.12
73% Ball Possession 27%
21 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
654 Passes 190
93% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Juventus vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventus and Cagliari shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Juventus at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Juventus had 73% of the ball to Cagliari's 27%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.46 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventus had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Juventus and 0.83 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Juventus vs Cagliari?

Juventus 1-1 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventus vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Juventus win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Juventus 51%, draw 28%, Cagliari 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Juventus), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Juventus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
6 Oct 2024
16:00 Bologna vs Parma Analysis →
16:00 Lazio vs Empoli Analysis →
19:00 Monza vs Roma Analysis →
21:45 Fiorentina vs Milan Analysis →