Lazio 2-1 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Oct 2024

Lazio
2-1 HT 1-1
Empoli
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No OUR CALL
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.85
6+ Goals
9%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 30% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.03
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.3
X/1
20%
3.67
X/2
5%
10.95
X/X
9%
4.9
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
8%
9.26
2/X
9%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
58%
+1.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+0.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-6.4pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 21%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +14%
1.66/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.66
+6% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
18.9 Crosses 15.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Empoli
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.85 xG 1.01
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
447 Passes 344
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Lazio Lazio 2-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
22.12.2023 Empoli Empoli 0-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
03.06.2023 Empoli Empoli 0-2 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
08.01.2023 Lazio Lazio 2-2 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
06.01.2022 Lazio Lazio 3-3 HT 1-2 Empoli Empoli İTA
21.08.2021 Empoli Empoli 1-3 HT 1-3 Lazio Lazio İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
2-1
AWAY Empoli
2.10 xG 0.55
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
360 Passes 220
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 9
32 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio nicked a narrow win over Empoli 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lazio had 59% of the ball to Empoli's 41%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 2.10 to 0.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lazio's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Lazio and 1.00 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Empoli?

Lazio 2-1 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Lazio 59%, draw 23%, Empoli 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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