Lazio vs Empoli Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lazio v Empoli — Team-Based Signals
Lazio vs Empoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Lazio
İTA
0-2
HT 0-0
Lazio
İTA
2-2
HT 1-0
Empoli
İTA
3-3
HT 1-2
Empoli
İTA
1-3
HT 1-3
Lazio
İTA
Lazio 2-1 Empoli — Actual Match Statistics
Lazio nicked a narrow win over Empoli 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lazio had 59% of the ball to Empoli's 41%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 2.10 to 0.55 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lazio's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Lazio and 1.00 for Empoli.
What was the final score of Lazio vs Empoli?
Lazio 2-1 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lazio vs Empoli?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Lazio 59%, draw 23%, Empoli 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.