Novara 1-0 Arzignano Valchiampo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
60%
1.44
Over 2.5
40%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.29
No
52%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
1.95
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
6.19
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.3pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
66%
-5.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
34%
+5.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
40%
+8.5pp
52%
BTTS No
60%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Arzignano Valchiampo EU Bookmakers 30%
-2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -12%
1.24/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/0.89
+2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +38%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
334 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Arzignano Valchiampo
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Arzignano Valchiampo Arzignano Valchiampo 0-2 HT 0-1 Novara Novara İTC
17.02.2024 Arzignano Valchiampo Arzignano Valchiampo 0-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
13.10.2023 Novara Novara 0-1 HT 0-1 Arzignano Valchiampo Arzignano Valchiampo İTC
08.04.2023 Arzignano Valchiampo Arzignano Valchiampo 1-1 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
04.12.2022 Novara Novara 3-1 HT 2-0 Arzignano Valchiampo Arzignano Valchiampo İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
1-0
AWAY Arzignano Valchiampo
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novara vs Arzignano Valchiampo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara squeezed past Arzignano Valchiampo 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 32%) promised a tight game; Novara found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Novara had 44% of the ball to Arzignano Valchiampo's 56%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Novara had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Novara and 0.60 for Arzignano Valchiampo.

What was the final score of Novara vs Arzignano Valchiampo?

Novara 1-0 Arzignano Valchiampo in the Italy - Serie C on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Arzignano Valchiampo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Novara 37%, draw 31%, Arzignano Valchiampo 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Novara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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