Rosario Central 2-1 Velez Sarsfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
34%
2.88
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.38
Over 2.5
30%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.33
No
65%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
45%
1.89
2-3 Goals
34%
1.82
4-5 Goals
14%
6.56
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.25
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.7
X/1
10%
4.44
X/2
8%
6.84
X/X
21%
3.35
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
9%
6.2
2/X
7%
16.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.6pp
34%
Draw
31%
+3.1pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.5pp
70%
Under 2.5
69%
+1.4pp
30%
Over 2.5
31%
-1.4pp
35%
BTTS Yes
39%
-3.4pp
65%
BTTS No
61%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rosario Central EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +9%
1.38/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.12
+20% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
272 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
23.4 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rosario Central
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.78 xG 0.89
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
248 Passes 294
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.10.2024 Rosario Central Rosario Central 3-0 HT 1-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
06.03.2024 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-0 HT 0-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
20.10.2023 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-1 HT 0-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
16.05.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
21.06.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 2-0 HT 1-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
16.02.2022 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rosario Central
2-1
AWAY Velez Sarsfield
0.62 xG 1.03
66% Ball Possession 34%
8 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
334 Passes 140
79% Pass Accuracy 63%
18 Box Touches 6
28 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Rosario Central vs Velez Sarsfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rosario Central squeezed past Velez Sarsfield 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rosario Central as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rosario Central had 66% of the ball to Velez Sarsfield's 34%, shots finished 8-4, expected goals 0.62 to 1.03 — the balance of chances actually favoured Velez Sarsfield.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rosario Central and 0.67 for Velez Sarsfield.

What was the final score of Rosario Central vs Velez Sarsfield?

Rosario Central 2-1 Velez Sarsfield in the Argentina - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rosario Central vs Velez Sarsfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rosario Central win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rosario Central 42%, draw 34%, Velez Sarsfield 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rosario Central) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rosario Central) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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