Moreton City Excelsior 3-1 Queensland Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - Queensland NPL, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
31%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
Over 2.5
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.33
No
43%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
37%
+7.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
31%
Away Win
39%
-8.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
71%
-13.7pp
43%
BTTS No
29%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreton City Excelsior EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Queensland Lions EU Bookmakers 43%
+52% / +52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
4.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.17
+124% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
338 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 13.8
Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreton City Excelsior
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Queensland Lions
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
13.07.2024 Queensland Lions Queensland Lions 1-2 HT 1-1 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior AVSQ
14.04.2024 Moreton City Excelsior Moreton City Excelsior 2-4 HT 0-3 Queensland Lions Queensland Lions AVNPL
POST-MATCH Moreton City Excelsior vs Queensland Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreton City Excelsior beat Queensland Lions 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Moreton City Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Moreton City Excelsior and 2.50 for Queensland Lions.

What was the final score of Moreton City Excelsior vs Queensland Lions?

Moreton City Excelsior 3-1 Queensland Lions in the Australia - Queensland NPL on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreton City Excelsior vs Queensland Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreton City Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Moreton City Excelsior 45%, draw 24%, Queensland Lions 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Moreton City Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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