LASK Linz 1-0 Grazer AK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.8
Over 2.5
54%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.88
6+ Goals
11%
16.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.88 — our 27% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.34
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.35
X/1
13%
4.28
X/2
8%
9.15
X/X
12%
4.8
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
25.0
2/2
8%
7.48
2/X
5%
15.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Grazer AK EU Bookmakers 24%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.66/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.42
-1% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
297 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 68%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
21.5 Crosses 14.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LASK Linz
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Grazer AK
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 0.82
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
400 Passes 257
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 Grazer AK Grazer AK 0-0 HT 0-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
21.09.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 4-2 HT 2-1 Grazer AK Grazer AK AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LASK Linz
1-0
AWAY Grazer AK
1.49 xG 1.06
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
558 Passes 279
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH LASK Linz vs Grazer AK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

LASK Linz squeezed past Grazer AK 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had LASK Linz as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, LASK Linz had 63% of the ball to Grazer AK's 37%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 1.49 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, LASK Linz had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for LASK Linz and 1.00 for Grazer AK.

What was the final score of LASK Linz vs Grazer AK?

LASK Linz 1-0 Grazer AK in the Austria - Bundesliga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LASK Linz vs Grazer AK?

Before kick-off our model rated a LASK Linz win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split LASK Linz 53%, draw 25%, Grazer AK 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (LASK Linz) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (LASK Linz) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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