Swarovski Tirol 1-3 Hartberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.27
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.97
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
4.13
6+ Goals
9%
19.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 29% vs market 28.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.45
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
9%
5.24
X/2
14%
6.27
X/X
15%
4.29
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
17%
4.54
2/X
9%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
40%
-9.0pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.5pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+5.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartberg EU Bookmakers 34%
-9% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.49/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.64
-9% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 71%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
16.6 Crosses 17.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swarovski Tirol
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Hartberg
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.89 xG 1.64
44% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
289 Passes 390
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2025 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-0 HT 0-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
26.09.2024 Hartberg Hartberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
03.03.2024 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-0 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
07.10.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 3-0 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
06.05.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 5-0 HT 4-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
29.04.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-1 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swarovski Tirol
1-3
AWAY Hartberg
0.89 xG 2.19
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
275 Passes 390
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hartberg saw off Swarovski Tirol 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 32% / 37% — and on the day Hartberg made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Swarovski Tirol had 44% of the ball to Hartberg's 56%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 0.89 to 2.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hartberg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Swarovski Tirol and 1.67 for Hartberg.

What was the final score of Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg?

Swarovski Tirol 1-3 Hartberg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hartberg win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Swarovski Tirol 31%, draw 32%, Hartberg 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hartberg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hartberg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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