Swarovski Tirol 1-0 Hartberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
2.99
Draw
33%
3.35
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.13
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.74
6+ Goals
15%
15.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.74 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.91
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
7%
6.63
X/2
17%
4.6
X/X
18%
4.56
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.96
2/X
9%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
30%
-5.8pp
33%
Draw
26%
+6.2pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Hartberg EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.38/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.99
+67% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
249 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 75%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
15.9 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swarovski Tirol
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hartberg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.82 xG 1.79
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
255 Passes 345
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 3-0 HT 0-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
06.05.2023 Hartberg Hartberg 5-0 HT 4-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
29.04.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 1-1 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
22.10.2022 Hartberg Hartberg 1-5 HT 1-2 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
31.07.2022 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 2-1 HT 1-1 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
14.05.2022 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 4-2 HT 1-0 Hartberg Hartberg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swarovski Tirol
1-0
AWAY Hartberg
1.38 xG 0.09
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
250 Passes 364
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swarovski Tirol edged past Hartberg 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hartberg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Swarovski Tirol had 43% of the ball to Hartberg's 57%, shots finished 13-3, expected goals 1.38 to 0.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Swarovski Tirol's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swarovski Tirol had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Swarovski Tirol and 2.17 for Hartberg.

What was the final score of Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg?

Swarovski Tirol 1-0 Hartberg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swarovski Tirol vs Hartberg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hartberg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Swarovski Tirol 24%, draw 33%, Hartberg 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hartberg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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