Sturm Graz 4-0 Wolfsberger AC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 3 Mar 2024

Sturm Graz
4-0 HT 0-0
Wolfsberger AC
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 27% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.32
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
16%
4.14
X/2
15%
8.5
X/X
10%
5.33
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
10%
6.28
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-5.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sturm Graz v Wolfsberger AC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolfsberger AC EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +26%
1.98/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.38
+16% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +57%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
272 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 69%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
19.5 Crosses 14.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Wolfsberger AC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.42 xG 1.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
260 Passes 223
67% Pass Accuracy 64%
20 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 1-2 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
16.10.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 3-2 HT 0-1 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU
23.07.2022 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 1-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
15.05.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-4 HT 0-3 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU
03.04.2022 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 0-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
31.10.2021 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 0-3 HT 0-1 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC AVU

Sturm Graz 4-0 Wolfsberger AC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
4-0
AWAY Wolfsberger AC
2.13 xG 0.55
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
317 Passes 214
71% Pass Accuracy 67%
26 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz ran out comfortable winners over Wolfsberger AC 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 59% of the ball to Wolfsberger AC's 41%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 2.13 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.83 for Wolfsberger AC.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?

Sturm Graz 4-0 Wolfsberger AC in the Austria - Bundesliga on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 47%, draw 23%, Wolfsberger AC 30%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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