Arba Minch Kenema 2-0 Mebrat Hayl — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.25
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
36%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
65%
1.52
Over 2.5
35%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
19%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
40%
-8.4pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.2pp
36%
Away Win
28%
+8.2pp
65%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.6pp
35%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.2pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arba Minch Kenema EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Mebrat Hayl EU Bookmakers 32%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
1.31/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.00
+31% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% /
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
311 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arba Minch Kenema
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Mebrat Hayl
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.02.2025 Mebrat Hayl Mebrat Hayl 2-1 Arba Minch Kenema Arba Minch Kenema ETH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arba Minch Kenema
2-0
AWAY Mebrat Hayl
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arba Minch Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arba Minch Kenema saw off Mebrat Hayl 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 32% / 36% — and on the day Arba Minch Kenema made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Arba Minch Kenema had 41% of the ball to Mebrat Hayl's 59%, shots finished 12-9.

What was the final score of Arba Minch Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?

Arba Minch Kenema 2-0 Mebrat Hayl in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arba Minch Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mebrat Hayl win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Arba Minch Kenema 32%, draw 32%, Mebrat Hayl 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Mebrat Hayl) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mebrat Hayl) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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