Shahrdari Astara 0-1 Fajr Sepasi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Azadegan League, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
7.78
Draw
17%
4.81
Away
62%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.96
No
62%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
4.47
2-3 Goals
34%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.75
6+ Goals
11%
7.49
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.47 — our 29% vs market 16.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
28%
X/X
11%
2/1
3%
2/2
28%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
10%
+10.7pp
17%
Draw
18%
-0.7pp
62%
Away Win
71%
-9.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.8pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.1pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shahrdari Astara EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Fajr Sepasi EU Bookmakers 75%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
0.64/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/0.00
+7% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% /
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
216 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shahrdari Astara
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Fajr Sepasi
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
10.11.2024 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi 3-0 HT 2-0 Shahrdari Astara Shahrdari Astara IRANAZ
17.03.2024 Shahrdari Astara Shahrdari Astara 1-2 HT 0-2 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi IRANAZ
15.10.2023 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi 2-1 HT 0-1 Shahrdari Astara Shahrdari Astara IRANAZ
10.05.2023 Shahrdari Astara Shahrdari Astara 0-0 HT 0-0 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi IRANAZ
19.12.2022 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi 0-0 HT 0-0 Shahrdari Astara Shahrdari Astara IRANAZ
POST-MATCH Shahrdari Astara vs Fajr Sepasi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fajr Sepasi nicked a narrow win over Shahrdari Astara 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fajr Sepasi as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (62%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Fajr Sepasi led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Shahrdari Astara and 1.40 for Fajr Sepasi.

What was the final score of Shahrdari Astara vs Fajr Sepasi?

Shahrdari Astara 0-1 Fajr Sepasi in the Iran - Azadegan League on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shahrdari Astara vs Fajr Sepasi?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fajr Sepasi win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Shahrdari Astara 21%, draw 17%, Fajr Sepasi 62%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fajr Sepasi), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fajr Sepasi) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
IRANAZ More Iran - Azadegan League
5 Apr 2025
15:45 Mes Kerman vs Shahrdari Noshahr FC Analysis →
16:00 Paykan Qazvin vs Pars Jam Bushehr Analysis →
18:45 Sanat Naft vs Niroye Zamini Analysis →