Fajr Sepasi 3-0 Shahrdari Astara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Azadegan League, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.27
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.78
Over 2.5
37%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
28%
2.81
No
72%
1.38
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
3.01
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 40% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
75%
-11.2pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.1pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+6.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
52%
+10.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
48%
-10.8pp
28%
BTTS Yes
32%
-3.2pp
72%
BTTS No
68%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fajr Sepasi EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Shahrdari Astara EU Bookmakers 9%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.59/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/1.41
-3% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
425 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 189 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fajr Sepasi
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Shahrdari Astara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
17.03.2024 Shahrdari Astara Shahrdari Astara 1-2 HT 0-2 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi IRANAZ
15.10.2023 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi 2-1 HT 0-1 Shahrdari Astara Shahrdari Astara IRANAZ
10.05.2023 Shahrdari Astara Shahrdari Astara 0-0 HT 0-0 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi IRANAZ
19.12.2022 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi 0-0 HT 0-0 Shahrdari Astara Shahrdari Astara IRANAZ
POST-MATCH Fajr Sepasi vs Shahrdari Astara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fajr Sepasi ran out comfortable winners over Shahrdari Astara 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fajr Sepasi as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (72%) landed while under 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fajr Sepasi had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fajr Sepasi and 0.50 for Shahrdari Astara.

What was the final score of Fajr Sepasi vs Shahrdari Astara?

Fajr Sepasi 3-0 Shahrdari Astara in the Iran - Azadegan League on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fajr Sepasi vs Shahrdari Astara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fajr Sepasi win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Fajr Sepasi 64%, draw 23%, Shahrdari Astara 13%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fajr Sepasi), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fajr Sepasi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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