Atletico Nacional 1-0 Union Magdalena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.29
Draw
24%
4.95
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.16
No
60%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
73%
-13.8pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.2pp
17%
Away Win
10%
+7.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.1pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Magdalena EU Bookmakers 12%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.66/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.58
+27% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -11%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
409 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 219 · 72%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.2
17.7 Crosses 11.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Union Magdalena
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.26 xG 1.02
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
315 Passes 288
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
08.10.2023 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.04.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
22.08.2022 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 2-2 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
20.02.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
19.08.2019 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 1-0 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena KOL
24.02.2019 Union Magdalena Union Magdalena 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
1-0
AWAY Union Magdalena
1.00 xG 0.14
73% Ball Possession 27%
17 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
431 Passes 126
86% Pass Accuracy 66%
13 Box Touches 1
24 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Union Magdalena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional nicked a narrow win over Union Magdalena 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 73% of the ball to Union Magdalena's 27%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 1.00 to 0.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.00 for Union Magdalena.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Union Magdalena?

Atletico Nacional 1-0 Union Magdalena in the Colombia - Primera on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Union Magdalena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 59%, draw 23%, Union Magdalena 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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