Alianza Petrolera 1-2 Envigado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
21%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.64
Over 2.5
37%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.4pp
63%
Under 2.5
57%
+5.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
43%
-5.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.8pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Envigado EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -7%
1.54/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.33
-23% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
329 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 76%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
20.6 Crosses 11.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Envigado
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.11 xG 1.49
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
254 Passes 291
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
12.08.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 0-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
08.02.2024 Envigado Envigado 1-2 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
11.08.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-1 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
18.02.2023 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
17.07.2022 Envigado Envigado 2-2 HT 1-2 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
31.01.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-2 HT 2-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1-2
AWAY Envigado
1.05 xG 0.62
74% Ball Possession 26%
15 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
363 Passes 89
79% Pass Accuracy 51%
23 Box Touches 1
38 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Envigado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Envigado edged past Alianza Petrolera 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Alianza Petrolera at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 74% of the ball to Envigado's 26%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.05 to 0.62 — the balance of chances actually favoured Alianza Petrolera.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 1.17 for Envigado.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Envigado?

Alianza Petrolera 1-2 Envigado in the Colombia - Primera on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Envigado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 50%, draw 28%, Envigado 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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