Nautico 1-0 Ponte Preta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 5 Apr 2026

Nautico
1-0 HT 0-0
Ponte Preta
📅05/04/2026 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2026

Nautico vs Ponte Preta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
18%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
21.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+4.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.8pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nautico v Ponte Preta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nautico EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 22%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -11%
1.79/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.21
+32% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
352 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
28.6 Crosses 16.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.1

Nautico vs Ponte Preta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nautico
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Ponte Preta
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.86 xG 1.58
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
262 Passes 261
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.11.2022 Nautico Nautico 0-1 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
21.07.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 0-0 Nautico Nautico BR2
16.10.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-3 HT 2-1 Nautico Nautico BR2
13.07.2021 Nautico Nautico 1-1 HT 0-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
17.01.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-0 HT 2-0 Nautico Nautico BR2
13.10.2020 Nautico Nautico 0-2 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2

Nautico 1-0 Ponte Preta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nautico
1-0
AWAY Ponte Preta
2.40 xG 0.53
69% Ball Possession 31%
23 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
387 Passes 142
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
41 Box Touches 12
41 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nautico vs Ponte Preta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nautico edged past Ponte Preta 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nautico as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nautico had 69% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 31%, shots finished 23-4, expected goals 2.40 to 0.53 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nautico's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nautico and 1.50 for Ponte Preta.

What was the final score of Nautico vs Ponte Preta?

Nautico 1-0 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nautico vs Ponte Preta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nautico win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Nautico 51%, draw 26%, Ponte Preta 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nautico), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nautico) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
5 Apr 2026
00:00 Cuiaba vs Ceara Analysis →
02:00 Vila Nova vs Atletico Goianiense Analysis →
02:30 Londrina vs Sport Recife Analysis →
22:00 Avai vs Operario PR Analysis →