Sarasota Paradise 1-2 One Knoxville — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 5 Apr 2026

📅05/04/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
31%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+3.5pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.8pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.9pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarasota Paradise EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY One Knoxville EU Bookmakers 34%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +24%
1.53/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.12
+0% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
253 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 70%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
18.5 Crosses 18.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarasota Paradise
1-2
AWAY One Knoxville
1.90 xG 1.25
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 3
285 Passes 428
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 30
28 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sarasota Paradise vs One Knoxville
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

One Knoxville edged past Sarasota Paradise 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sarasota Paradise at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sarasota Paradise had 43% of the ball to One Knoxville's 57%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.90 to 1.25 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sarasota Paradise.

What was the final score of Sarasota Paradise vs One Knoxville?

Sarasota Paradise 1-2 One Knoxville in the USA - USL League 1 on 05/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarasota Paradise vs One Knoxville?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sarasota Paradise win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sarasota Paradise 43%, draw 24%, One Knoxville 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sarasota Paradise) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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