Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 5 May 2024

Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0 HT 0-0
Aston Villa
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.41
No
45%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
5.73
2-3 Goals
37%
2.03
4-5 Goals
24%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.24
1/2
7%
24.85
1/X
6%
12.05
X/1
8%
5.85
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.28
X/X
13%
5.78
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
13%
3.58
2/X
7%
12.1
Value flag · X/2 at 6.28 — our 18% vs market 11.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-3.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+2.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
67%
-12.0pp
45%
BTTS No
33%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 39%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +20%
1.57/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.27
-13% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
19.1 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Aston Villa
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.96 xG 1.54
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
463 Passes 238
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 6-1 HT 3-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
28.05.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
08.12.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-2 HT 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion HAZ
13.11.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-2 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
26.02.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
20.11.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-0 HT 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brighton & Hove Albion
1-0
AWAY Aston Villa
2.53 xG 0.05
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 2
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
423 Passes 383
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brighton & Hove Albion edged past Aston Villa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Brighton & Hove Albion made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brighton & Hove Albion had 52% of the ball to Aston Villa's 48%, shots finished 15-2, expected goals 2.53 to 0.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brighton & Hove Albion's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Brighton & Hove Albion and 2.67 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa?

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Brighton & Hove Albion 36%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
5 May 2024
16:00 Chelsea vs West Ham United Analysis →
18:30 Liverpool vs Tottenham Analysis →