Aalborg 2-3 Hobro IK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 5 May 2024

Aalborg
2-3 HT 2-2
Hobro IK
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2023/2024

Aalborg vs Hobro IK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
27%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.78
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.6
X/1
19%
3.63
X/2
8%
13.2
X/X
9%
6.17
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2 EV+ ✗
14%
10.4
2/X
9%
18.4
Value flag · 2/2 at 10.4 — our 14% vs market 6.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
65%
-15.0pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.5pp
27%
Away Win
15%
+12.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.1pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aalborg v Hobro IK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aalborg EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Hobro IK EU Bookmakers 18%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.70/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.50
+7% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
355 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
21.0 Crosses 18.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

Aalborg vs Hobro IK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aalborg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hobro IK
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.54 xG 1.30
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
426 Passes 296
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.04.2024 Hobro IK Hobro IK 2-1 HT 0-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAN1
26.11.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 1-2 HT 0-0 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
24.08.2023 Hobro IK Hobro IK 1-2 HT 1-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAN1
01.12.2019 Aalborg Aalborg 1-1 HT 1-1 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN
05.10.2019 Hobro IK Hobro IK 0-2 HT 0-1 Aalborg Aalborg DAN
26.04.2019 Aalborg Aalborg 1-1 HT 0-0 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN
POST-MATCH Aalborg vs Hobro IK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hobro IK nicked a narrow win over Aalborg 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aalborg at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aalborg and 1.17 for Hobro IK.

What was the final score of Aalborg vs Hobro IK?

Aalborg 2-3 Hobro IK in the Denmark 1st Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aalborg vs Hobro IK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aalborg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Aalborg 50%, draw 23%, Hobro IK 27%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aalborg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aalborg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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