HB Koge 1-1 Hillerod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 5 May 2024

HB Koge
1-1 HT 1-1
Hillerod
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2023/2024

HB Koge vs Hillerod Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
57%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
30%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.7
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.55
1/X
5%
16.25
X/1
5%
10.65
X/2
18%
3.9
X/X
10%
6.28
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.97
2/X
5%
15.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.55 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
20%
+3.5pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.8pp
57%
Away Win
59%
-1.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

HB Koge v Hillerod — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HB Koge EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Hillerod EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.37/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.74
+7% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +96% / –
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
316 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 79%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
15.1 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0

HB Koge vs Hillerod Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HB Koge
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Hillerod
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.30 xG 1.05
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
417 Passes 406
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.04.2024 Hillerod Hillerod 1-1 HT 0-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
08.03.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 0-4 HT 0-2 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
21.07.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 0-4 HT 0-1 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
19.05.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 1-0 HT 1-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
23.04.2023 HB Koge HB Koge 2-0 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
18.03.2023 HB Koge HB Koge 0-1 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1

HB Koge 1-1 Hillerod — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HB Koge
1-1
AWAY Hillerod
0.54 xG 2.73
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 24
1 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 7
336 Passes 508
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 40
11 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH HB Koge vs Hillerod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HB Koge and Hillerod shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hillerod at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HB Koge had 41% of the ball to Hillerod's 59%, shots finished 6-24, expected goals 0.54 to 2.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hillerod led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for HB Koge and 1.17 for Hillerod.

What was the final score of HB Koge vs Hillerod?

HB Koge 1-1 Hillerod in the Denmark 1st Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HB Koge vs Hillerod?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split HB Koge 23%, draw 20%, Hillerod 57%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hillerod), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hillerod) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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