Hillerod 1-1 HB Koge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 19 Apr 2024

Hillerod
1-1 HT 0-0
HB Koge
📅19/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2023/2024

Hillerod vs HB Koge Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.08
Away
18%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.83
2-3 Goals
42%
1.93
4-5 Goals
21%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.61
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.83 — our 26% vs market 16.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.85
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.05
X/1 EV+ ✗
26%
3.88
X/2
6%
12.0
X/X
7%
6.52
2/1
7%
20.45
2/2
7%
8.62
2/X
7%
16.5
Value flag · X/1 at 3.88 — our 26% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
62%
-0.7pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.7pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+1.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.8pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hillerod v HB Koge — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY HB Koge EU Bookmakers 21%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.35/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.76
+58% / +85% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
318 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 69%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
15.1 Crosses 11.7
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.9

Hillerod vs HB Koge Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
3W-0D-3L
AWAY HB Koge
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.79 xG 1.47
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
346 Passes 428
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.03.2024 HB Koge HB Koge 0-4 HT 0-2 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
21.07.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 0-4 HT 0-1 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
19.05.2023 Hillerod Hillerod 1-0 HT 1-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
23.04.2023 HB Koge HB Koge 2-0 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
18.03.2023 HB Koge HB Koge 0-1 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
11.08.2022 Hillerod Hillerod 0-2 HT 0-1 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1

Hillerod 1-1 HB Koge — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
1-1
AWAY HB Koge
2.13 xG 0.29
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
693 Passes 291
91% Pass Accuracy 79%
39 Box Touches 9
31 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs HB Koge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hillerod and HB Koge couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Hillerod carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hillerod had 68% of the ball to HB Koge's 32%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.13 to 0.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hillerod and 1.33 for HB Koge.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs HB Koge?

Hillerod 1-1 HB Koge in the Denmark 1st Division on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs HB Koge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 62%, draw 20%, HB Koge 18%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hillerod) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN1 More Denmark 1st Division
19 Apr 2024
20:00 AC Horsens vs FC Helsingor Analysis →
20:00 B93 Kopenhag vs Naestved Analysis →