Nieciecza 2-2 Polonia Warszawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒13:40 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.6
No
56%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.41
2-3 Goals
44%
1.89
4-5 Goals
21%
2.94
6+ Goals
8%
8.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.41 — our 27% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
51%
-1.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-14.8pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nieciecza EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.63/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.71
+5% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +102%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
307 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nieciecza
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
12 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.11.2023 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 1-1 HT 0-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nieciecza
2-2
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nieciecza and Polonia Warszawa couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nieciecza at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nieciecza had 43% of the ball to Polonia Warszawa's 57%, shots finished 12-11.

What was the final score of Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa?

Nieciecza 2-2 Polonia Warszawa in the Poland - 1st Division on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nieciecza win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Nieciecza 50%, draw 24%, Polonia Warszawa 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nieciecza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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