EGS Gafsa 1-0 AS Marsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.44
Over 2.5
35%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.44
No
66%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
15%
6.67
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.8pp
22%
Away Win
22%
+0.7pp
65%
Under 2.5
66%
-0.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
34%
+0.4pp
34%
BTTS Yes
37%
-2.6pp
66%
BTTS No
63%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME EGS Gafsa EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY AS Marsa EU Bookmakers 25%
+37% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.00
-2% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +114% / -64%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME EGS Gafsa
0W-1D-2L
AWAY AS Marsa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
11.02.2024 AS Marsa AS Marsa 1-0 HT 0-0 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN
03.06.2023 AS Marsa AS Marsa 2-2 HT 0-1 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN2
02.11.2014 AS Marsa AS Marsa 3-2 HT 1-1 EGS Gafsa EGS Gafsa TUN1
POST-MATCH EGS Gafsa vs AS Marsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

EGS Gafsa nicked a narrow win over AS Marsa 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had EGS Gafsa as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (66%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, AS Marsa led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for EGS Gafsa and 2.00 for AS Marsa.

What was the final score of EGS Gafsa vs AS Marsa?

EGS Gafsa 1-0 AS Marsa in the Tunisia - 1st Division Yükselme / Düşme on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for EGS Gafsa vs AS Marsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a EGS Gafsa win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split EGS Gafsa 49%, draw 29%, AS Marsa 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (EGS Gafsa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (EGS Gafsa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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